Reading Politicians: Greg Abbott is Pissed.

When you learn how to read politicians, you better understand how to stop them.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott arrives at President Donald Trump's inauguration at the U.S. Capitol on January 20 in Washington, D.C. Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call via AP Images/POOL

When you're a politician, every move you make is analyzed. Which is why you have to pick a lane—either you're radically honest, wearing your thoughts and feelings on your sleeve, or you're calm and collected. You cannot have it both ways.

Because the moment you shift—from composed to defensive, from poised to attacking—you’ve shown your hand.

And that’s how I know Greg Abbott is absolutely losing it.

Right now, Abbott is desperately trying to push through a school voucher program in Texas. He and his billionaire donors want to create “education savings accounts,” claiming it will help parents send their kids to private schools they otherwise couldn’t afford. But here’s the reality: it won’t.

The way Abbott and his donors have structured this scam, it’s essentially just a subsidy for wealthy families already sending their kids to elite private schools. They’re packaging it as “school choice,” pretending it gives families options.

But Texans aren’t buying it.

For the last several legislative sessions, both Republicans and Democrats have shut this bill down. Especially rural Republicans, who know vouchers would gut public schools in their communities. And in some of those counties, the school district is one of the largest employers.

So what has Abbott been doing? Trying to primary out every Republican who won’t fall in line. And while he’s had some success, vouchers still aren’t a guarantee.

How do I know? Not because of polling data. Not because Republicans have gone on record. Not because of any official statement.

I know because Abbott is breaking his pattern.

Abbott doesn’t pick fights unless it helps him with the MAGA base. But the reality? This issue just isn’t a priority for them. Just look at the engagement on his posts—low likes, lots of comments, barely any reshares. The interest just isn’t there.

So the fact that he’s obsessing over it? That tells me everything.

I call this a crash out. He’s angry. Defensive. And most importantly—he’s looking at numbers that tell him he’s losing.

It could be internal polling, it could be that he knows he doesn’t have the votes, it could be that even his own social media numbers are underwhelming. My guess? A combination of all three.

Especially because now, Abbott is explaining. He’s posting skewed fact sheets, “debunking” Democrats’ claims one by one.

There is a big rule in politics—when you’re explaining, you’re losing.

On top of that, Abbott is publicly picking fights with lawmakers. Specifically, with Democrat James Talarico—one of the most effective Democratic voices on social media, pulling in millions of views per video on public education and corruption in Texas politics.

Talarico is a former educator who spends a huge amount of time talking about the threats to public schools. And that’s exactly why Abbott is targeting him. Abbott even quoted Talarico’s posts in a defensive, accusatory way—because he knows Talarico is a major threat. And with Trump at the top of the ticket in 2024, Abbott knows that Talarico and candidates like him could pose a real risk to Republican control.

And Abbott isn’t just lashing out online—he’s meeting with lawmakers behind closed doors. Which is not something he’s known for. Abbott isn’t exactly famous for schmoozing or cultivating relationships with legislators, even in his own party. If he’s suddenly hosting meetings, it means he’s not confident he has the votes.

Even more telling? These so-called “closed-door meetings” are being turned into social media photo ops. Abbott is posting pictures of himself meeting with lawmakers—something he doesn’t usually do. Because he’s not just trying to secure votes behind the scenes—he’s trying to signal to the public that he has certain lawmakers in his corner. If he actually had their votes locked down, he wouldn’t need to post about it.

And the cherry on top? Texas Republicans even brought in Riley Gaines, a conservative influencer, to push the voucher scam. And even her post barely cracked 2,000 likes and 96,000 views.

So let’s review:

• Abbott is publicly whipping votes.

• He’s scrambling to push a social media strategy.

• He’s picking fights with popular Democrats.

• He’s posting photo ops from meetings that should be happening behind the scenes.

That tells me one thing—he’s not sure he can make this happen.

This is Abbott’s last stand. If, after all this money, all these years, all these primary battles, he still can’t get his donors what they want—what’s the point of keeping him in power? If you can’t control your own party, what’s the point of Republican control?

Abbott put out a statement claiming Republicans have the votes to pass this bill, but I highly doubt it’ll survive in its current form. It’s more likely that amendments and backroom deals will water it down just enough to reduce the harm to public schools—because at the end of the day, lawmakers know they answer to voters, not just Abbott’s billionaire friends. They know that outside bipartisan groups will spend money to mobilize voters and constituents, and no matter how much money you have— it’s hard to convince staunch Republican voters to oust a lawmaker because they voted to defend public education.

Whatever happens, this whole debacle is a lesson in how to read a politician like a banned book. Abbott’s shifts in behavior, his defensiveness, his frantic attempts at control—it all tells you he’s not in control.

And the better you understand how they act when they’re losing, the better you can help make them lose in the future.

As for Texas? It’s still the biggest bellwether in the country. And right now, if this is any indication, one thing is clear: Republicans might hold power—but governing is an entirely different game.